Every day sees new stories, much like the last two years with so called “analysts” writing off BlackBerry. These sad stories really seem to amount to people cutting and pasting articles together with very little serious thought or analysis. The latest impending doom is due to the allegation that “Instagram” won’t be native. Does anyone really care if an Android port is the solution? Do we really need to post to Instagram our shots of us eating “pasta”? Or, will posting to the parent company site, Facebook, after editing any picture with the new picture editor, not suffice? To hinge a new product’s success on whether a single “used to having” app is available in its native form at launch is silly. I’m sure we can all adapt to new ways of doing things that offer for some a unique and better approach, and for others the comfort level of having that stale old app that they’re used to, never mind that we can access much of so called “app” functionalities via the web browser. There is so much more to the new OS that is redefining mobile. In spite of all of this continued bad karma, BlackBerry moves on.
When one looks at the stock over the last week, it has traded on average at $14, or over the last month at an average of near $16, on the roller coaster ride that I predicted near a month ago, in another blog on this site. Since September, 2012 the stock has gone from $6 and change to near $14; that is an increase of 133.33%–shame on the short sellers who did not hold onto it at $9.00 and then again at $12.00. Even today, on seeking alpha, I read an article by an analyst (Eric Savitz) stating that the stock will go from $12 to $9. I suppose the fact that the stock has been above $12 for a long while now has eluded this fellow. On the other hand, one can usually tell a serious, well researched, article supporting the numbers purported. I cite one such article below (by “Tufenk”) where a target price of $20 is re-iterated by several more serious analysts. I provide below some of the graphical trends for BlackBerry, Apple and Nokia. Clearly, it is safe to say that BlackBerry is on the rise, over the last six months, to where it was a year ago, Nokia has not changed much, over the last year, and Apple is on the decline, over the last six months.
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